Posts byBen Page

Foreword 2019

Welcome to our review of 2019: another year of Brexit and another general election. We are putting this review to bed before the outcome of the election and so we don’t know if the Conservatives ultimately managed a significant majority, or had a shock similar to that of 2017. At the time of writing, a…
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What sort of country will Mr Johnson govern?

After a momentous election, I am delighted that the Ipsos MORI Exit poll has again proved to be highly accurate, predicting 368 Conservative seats at 10pm on the night of the election: in the end they achieved 365.  Our pre-election polling for the Evening Standard was accurate to within 1% of each Parties’ share of…
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Broken Britain?

If the 1990s and early part of the 21st century seemed a happy time for social democracy and liberal values, the post-2008 crash world seems very different. One of the biggest shifts in my 32 years at Ipsos MORI has been the ‘loss of the future’ in Western Europe and North America. Whereas in 2003…
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Foreword

Welcome to our review of 2018, a year filled with seemingly unending arguments about Brexit – and potentially one of many to come. Overall, the British remain personally upbeat, with the ONS recording rising personal happiness, and (perhaps) record employment contributing to this. Yet the public are anxious about the state of the country as…
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Foreword

Welcome to our round up of 2017. This year Britain has been portrayed as divided, split between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’, Millennials and Baby Boomers, Brexiteers and Remainers, ‘Somewheres’ and ‘Anywheres’, or the experts and the rest.1 We in the UK are not alone in experiencing uncertainty about the future, as the pace…
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Foreword

Welcome to our round up of 2017. This year Britain has been portrayed as divided, split between the ’haves’ and the ’have nots’, Millennials and Baby Boomers, Brexiteers and Remainers, ’Somewheres’ and ’Anywheres’, or the experts and the rest.03 We in the UK are not alone in experiencing uncertainty about the future, as the pace…
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How did Trump do it?

Despite Hilary Clinton getting more votes than Donald Trump (about 1-2% more, close to the three-point lead predicted by pollsters) she failed to win the Electoral College votes needed to secure the presidency (not predicted by pollsters). But how did this shock election come about? What is it about Trump and his campaign that managed…
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What happened with the polling?

The result of June’s referendum was a major shock for the political and business establishment, who apparently saw Britain voting to stay in the EU as a foregone conclusion. But if they did, their mistaken certainty cannot be blamed on the polls. Even though almost all of the final polls pointed towards a Remain win,…
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The polls: getting it right (or not)

Ipsos MORI had a mixed election day. Our exit poll for the broadcasters (which we conducted in conjunction with GfK NOP and a team of academic political scientists who make the predictions from the data we collect) was a jaw-dropping success. Once again, almost nobody believed it. Paddy Ashdown, former Liberal Democrat leader, announced he…
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Foreword

Welcome to Ipsos MORI’s review of 2015 I’m writing this in the aftermath of the brutal and tragic Paris attacks, which served as a reminder that random terror is now a seemingly permanent fixture of the 21st century. In a world that is evermore prosperous, globalised and interlinked, inequality and religious divides seem as permanent…
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Foreword

Welcome to our 2014 Almanac. A year full of surprises. A surge in the public’s economic optimism this spring, but falling unemployment did not see a rise in personal financial optimism. Our politics is more uncertain than ever, a ‘war of the weak’: Labour’s post-referendum collapse in Scotland, the unpopularity of Ed Miliband, and their…
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